{"id":4757,"date":"2025-12-30T14:01:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T14:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journal.ziu-university.net\/?p=4757"},"modified":"2025-12-30T14:01:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T14:01:32","slug":"the-impact-of-macroeconomic-instability-in-iraq-on-iraqi-exports-to-turkey-exchange-rates-inflation-rates-and-import","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/?p=4757","title":{"rendered":"The Impact of Macroeconomic Instability in Iraq on Iraqi Exports to Turkey &#8220;Exchange Rates, Inflation Rates, and Import&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;The aim of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic instability in Iraq on its export performance to Turkey during the period 2000-2024. Specifically, the study investigates how exchange rates, inflation rates, and import levels affect Iraq&#8217;s exports to Turkey. Using annual time series data, the analysis examines both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships between these variables, providing empirical evidence about the macroeconomic determinants of Iraq&#8217;s foreign trade performance. Fourier SHIN and SHIN cointegration tests are used to confirm the existence of long-term relationships, while Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) estimators are used to measure long-term coefficients. Furthermore, the Granger causality test is applied to determine the direction of causality between the variables. The empirical evidence confirms a stable long-term relationship between inflation, exchange rates, imports, and exports. The results obtained from FMOLS and DOLS estimations show that both exchange rate volatility and rising inflation negatively impact Iraq&#8217;s export performance. Furthermore, causality analysis reveals a unidirectional causal link from inflation and exchange rates to export volume, as well as a bidirectional causal interaction between imports, exchange rates, and inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Keywords:<\/strong> <strong>Exchange rate, Inflation, Export, Import, Fourier SHIN, FMOLS and DOLS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062a\u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062f\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062f\u064a\u0631\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0627 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 2000-2024. \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f\u060c \u062a\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0631\u0643\u064a\u0627. \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0629 \u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0633\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0629\u060c \u064a\u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0635\u064a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0632\u0646 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0627\u064b \u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062f\u062f\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642. \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0641\u0648\u0631\u064a\u064a\u0647 \u0634\u064a\u0646 (Fourier SHIN) \u0648\u0634\u064a\u0646 (SHIN) \u0644\u062a\u0623\u0643\u064a\u062f \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 (FMOLS) \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629 (DOLS) \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644. \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0637\u0628\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u062c\u0631\u0627\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062a\u0624\u0643\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062c\u0644 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0648\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a. \u062a\u064f\u0638\u0647\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a (FMOLS) \u0648 (DOLS) \u0623\u0646 \u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0648\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u062f\u064a\u0631\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0627\u0642. \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0648\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0630\u0644\u0643\u060c \u064a\u0643\u0634\u0641 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u062d\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645 \u0648\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0639\u0644 \u0633\u0628\u0628\u064a \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629:<\/strong> <strong>\u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0631\u0641\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0631\u062f\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0641\u0648\u0631\u064a\u064a\u0647 \u0634\u064a\u0646\u060c FMOLS \u0648 DOLS.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BY : <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0130lham AKDA\u011e<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Dr. \u00d6\u011fr. \u00dcyesi,- Mardin Artuklu \u00dcniversitesi<\/p>\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"review_wrap\">\r\n\t\t\t<div id=\"review-box\" class=\"review-box review-bottom review-stars\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-summary\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-final-score\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span title=\"\" class=\"post-large-rate stars-large\"><span style=\"width:0%\"><\/span><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><\/h4>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-short-summary\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1u1r8JZhqFIZT_rxU5utdBOZEhCU-urPk\/view?usp=drive_link\" class=\"taq-button taq-medium taq-square taq-flat\" style=\"background-color:#a0ce4e\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"fa fa-download\"><\/i><span class=\"button-text\">Download<\/span><\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"user-rate-wrap\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"user-rating-text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<strong>\u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0648\u0646: <\/strong>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"taq-score\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<small>\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0648\u062a\u0648\u0646 !<\/small>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<div data-rate=\"0\" data-id=\"4757\" class=\"user-rate taq-user-rate-active\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"user-rate-image post-large-rate stars-large\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span style=\"width:0%\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"taq-clear\"><\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract &nbsp;The aim of this study is to examine the impact of macroeconomic instability in Iraq on its export performance to Turkey during the period 2000-2024. Specifically, the study investigates how exchange rates, inflation rates, and import levels affect Iraq&#8217;s exports to Turkey. Using annual time series data, the analysis examines both short-term dynamics and &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[154],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-154"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4757"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4758,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4757\/revisions\/4758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}