{"id":5164,"date":"2026-08-01T01:51:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-01T01:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/?p=5164"},"modified":"2026-08-01T01:51:59","modified_gmt":"2026-08-01T01:51:59","slug":"%d8%a7%d8%ae%d8%aa%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%b6%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%aa%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%84%d9%82%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%a3%d8%ab%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/?p=5164","title":{"rendered":"\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0646 1990-2025 (\u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u064a)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This study aimed to test the threshold hypothesis for the impact of public debt on economic growth in Sudan during the period 1990-2025, using the Threshold Regression Model. The dependent variable was the growth rate of GDP per capita, while the independent variables included the ratios of external debt, domestic debt, and total public debt to GDP, along with control variables: inflation, fixed capital to GDP ratio, trade openness, and a dummy variable for the secession of South Sudan. Data were collected from the World Bank and IMF databases. After conducting unit root and cointegration tests, the threshold regression model was estimated. The results revealed a threshold for total public debt-to-GDP ratio at 58.7%: below this level, the impact of public debt on growth is positive and significant, while above it, the effect turns negative and significant. The results also indicated that the secession of South Sudan had a significant negative impact on economic growth. The study recommends keeping the public debt ratio below the threshold level, diversifying financing sources, and enhancing managed trade openness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Keywords:<\/em><\/strong><strong> Public Debt, Economic Growth, Threshold Regression Model, Sudan, Threshold Hypothesis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u062e\u0635<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 (1990-2025)\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u064a (Threshold Regression Model). \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644\u062a \u0645\u0634\u0643\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u0628\u0627\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0622\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0625\u0630\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u064a\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0646 \u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u0628\u064a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a. \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0647\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644 \u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0646\u0635\u064a\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0631\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0645\u062b\u0644\u062a \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0625\u0636\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0636\u0627\u0628\u0637\u0629 \u0634\u0645\u0644\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u060c \u0648\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0631\u0623\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0627\u0628\u062a \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0648\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0645\u062a\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0648\u0647\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u062c\u0646\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646. \u062a\u0645 \u062c\u0645\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646 \u0642\u0627\u0639\u062f\u0629 \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a \u0648\u0635\u0646\u062f\u0648\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0648\u0644\u064a. \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0625\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062c\u0630\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u062a\u0631\u0643\u060c \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u064a. \u0623\u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629 \u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 58.7%\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0645\u0648\u062c\u0628\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0627\u064b \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u0644\u0628 \u0648\u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0639\u0646\u062f \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0632\u0647. \u0643\u0645\u0627 \u0623\u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u0641\u0635\u0627\u0644 \u062c\u0646\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0644\u0647 \u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0633\u0644\u0628\u064a \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646. \u0648\u062e\u0644\u0635\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0636\u0631\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0628\u0642\u0627\u0621 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0646\u0648\u064a\u0639 \u0645\u0635\u0627\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0633.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u062a\u0627\u062d\u064a\u0629: \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0645\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0646\u0645\u0648\u0630\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0646\u062d\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u064a\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0641\u0631\u0636\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u062a\u0628\u0629<\/strong><br><br><em>Badr Aldin Abdelmalik Al-Haj Abu Zaid\u00b9, Ezzeldin Mohammed Fadlallah Abdullah\u00b9, Adam Hassan Ibrahim Hassan\u00b9, Salah Ahmed Munayel Mohammed\u00b9, Musa Hood Younis Wanas\u00b9, Mujtaba Sulaiman Al-Amin Abdelmajid\u00b9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u062f.\u0628\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u062c \u0627\u0628\u0648\u0632\u064a\u062f \u060c \u062f. \u0639\u0632\u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647\u060c&nbsp; \u0623. \u0627\u062f\u0645 \u062d\u0633\u0646 \u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u0647\u064a\u0645 \u062d\u0633\u0646<sup>\u060c<\/sup><sup> <\/sup>\u062f.\u0635\u0644\u0627\u062d \u0627\u062d\u0645\u062f \u0645\u0646\u064a\u0644&nbsp; \u0645\u062d\u0645\u062f \u060c \u062f. \u0645\u0648\u0633\u064a \u0647\u0648\u062f \u064a\u0648\u0646\u0633 \u0648\u0627\u0646\u0633\u060c&nbsp; \u0623. \u0645\u062c\u062a\u0628\u064a \u0633\u0644\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0646 \u0639\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062c\u062f<sup><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u00b9 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Commercial Studies, University of Kordofan, Sudan.<\/em><\/p>\n\r\n\t\t<div class=\"review_wrap\">\r\n\t\t\t<div id=\"review-box\" class=\"review-box review-bottom review-stars\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-summary\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-final-score\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span title=\"\" class=\"post-large-rate stars-large\"><span style=\"width:0%\"><\/span><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<h4><\/h4>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"review-short-summary\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/1M-A-1_jbRhicIyTr2pOQ5fv6D-kppQQM\/view?usp=drive_link\" class=\"taq-button taq-medium taq-square taq-flat\" style=\"background-color:#a0ce4e\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"fa fa-download\"><\/i><span class=\"button-text\">Download<\/span><\/a>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\r\n\t\t\t<div class=\"user-rate-wrap\">\r\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"user-rating-text\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<strong>\u062a\u0642\u064a\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0648\u0646: <\/strong>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"taq-score\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<small>\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0648\u062a\u0648\u0646 !<\/small>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<div data-rate=\"0\" data-id=\"5164\" class=\"user-rate taq-user-rate-active\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"user-rate-image post-large-rate stars-large\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span style=\"width:0%\"><\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"taq-clear\"><\/div>\r\n\r\n\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract This study aimed to test the threshold hypothesis for the impact of public debt on economic growth in Sudan during the period 1990-2025, using the Threshold Regression Model. The dependent variable was the growth rate of GDP per capita, while the independent variables included the ratios of external debt, domestic debt, and total public &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-166"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5164"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5164\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5165,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5164\/revisions\/5165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/journal.ziu.edu.sy\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}